If you’re a longer term Tesla follower cast your mind back to March 2016, Tesla were about to display the mass produced Model 3 for the first time and the small (by today’s standards) Tesla fan base were salivating at the thought of a reasonable cost electric vehicle with the style and potential performance of the Tesla Model S. Anyone who had been for a drive in a Tesla product were excited, Legacy auto were not, Tesla was just background noise while they continued building vehicles with 20th century technology. As far as Legacy auto was concerned Tesla was just a niche product purchased by fanatics, the customer base was small and would soon dry up. 48 hours after the Model 3 reveal Tesla had over 300,000 deposits for the model 3, a car many would not receive for over 3 years, that was the last time Legacy auto would underestimate Tesla.
Anything Tesla announce on battery day will gain the full attention of the worlds car makers and likely lead to massive investments in research and development in an attempt to keep up with Tesla, the winners out of this will be the worlds car buyers.
Tesla battery day could bring a battery with better energy density, a battery that will have a useful life of well over a million kilometres, possibly a battery that can be charged at a far faster rate than currently available. It could be none of the above and it still won’t matter, Tesla only need one breakthrough and in the eyes of the fence sitters waiting to buy an electric car a Tesla goes from almost as good as ICE to slightly better than an ICE in total cost of ownership, it doesn’t take much to tip the scales for good.
So what is the most likely announcement on battery day? Amongst many small advancements I think the important one will be faster battery production allowing more efficient use of the facilities and factory workers that will lead to lower costs per kWh of batteries. This reduction in cost may only be 15 to 20% but that’s enough to create the tipping point necessary to assign the internal combustion engine to history.